Last updated: September 9, 2026. Editorial Team — researched using data from IDC and reporting from Cryptopolitan and Counterpoint Research. See “Sources & Methodology” for our full source list.
Quick Answer
Global smartphone shipments are projected to fall 16.7% in 2026, to just over 1 billion units — the worst yearly decline the industry has ever recorded, according to research firm IDC. The root cause isn’t collapsing demand for phones themselves, but a memory-chip shortage that began in late 2025: NAND and DRAM costs have risen more than 300% year-over-year, pushing average smartphone prices up 27.6% industry-wide. That price surge is squeezing out the lower end of the market hardest, even as premium categories like foldables are still expected to grow. Manufacturers, retailers, and consumers are all navigating a supply-driven price shock that has little to do with whether people still want new phones.
The Numbers Behind the Worst Year on Record
IDC’s projection, cited in Cryptopolitan’s recent reporting, is stark in its framing: worldwide smartphone shipments will fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, representing the worst yearly drop the industry has ever posted. That’s a genuinely unusual way to describe a single year’s data — not simply “a decline,” but the steepest one on record for an industry that has weathered previous downturns tied to economic recessions, component shortages, and shifting upgrade cycles. IDC attributes the collapse primarily to the memory shortage rather than to any broader falloff in consumer interest in smartphones themselves.
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The Memory Shortage, in Concrete Terms
The specific mechanism driving the shipment collapse is worth understanding precisely, since it explains why this downturn looks different from prior smartphone market slumps. NAND and DRAM memory chip costs are up more than 300% year-over-year, according to IDC’s data as reported by Cryptopolitan — an extraordinary spike for components that make up a meaningful, non-negotiable share of every smartphone’s bill of materials. That cost surge has flowed directly through to consumers: average smartphone prices are up 27.6% industry-wide as manufacturers pass along their higher component costs rather than absorb them into already-thin margins. When the base cost of building a phone rises that sharply in a single year, manufacturers face a difficult choice between raising retail prices, which reduces unit sales, or protecting volume at the cost of profitability — and the industry-wide data suggests most manufacturers have chosen to protect margins by raising prices, accepting the resulting unit decline.
Why the Foldable Category Is a Genuine Exception
What makes the current downturn particularly interesting is that it isn’t uniform across every smartphone category. Even as IDC projects an industry-wide 16.7% shipment decline, the firm simultaneously forecasts Apple’s first foldable iPhone will sell more than 10 million units in its debut year — a genuinely different trajectory from the broader market contraction happening around it. That divergence makes sense once you consider who’s buying in each segment: foldable buyers at the $2,000-plus price point were never especially price-sensitive to a 27.6% average cost increase in the way that budget and mid-range smartphone buyers are, since foldables were already priced well above the point where component-cost inflation meaningfully changes the purchase decision. Counterpoint Research’s April 2026 forecast projects the North American foldable segment specifically will grow 48% year-over-year in 2026, entirely disconnected from the broader shipment collapse happening in the mainstream market.
Who Feels This Squeeze Most
The 27.6% average price increase almost certainly doesn’t distribute evenly across the market, based on how component-cost shocks typically play out in consumer electronics. Budget and entry-level smartphones, where memory chips represent a proportionally larger share of the total device cost, are structurally more exposed to a NAND/DRAM price spike than premium flagship devices, where memory is already a smaller fraction of a much higher overall price tag. That dynamic tends to compress the affordable end of the smartphone market specifically — the segment serving price-sensitive buyers in both mature markets and price-sensitive emerging markets — even as premium and ultra-premium categories like foldables continue growing largely unaffected.
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What This Means for Upgrade Timing
For anyone weighing whether to buy a new phone right now, the practical implication of a supply-driven price shock, rather than a demand-driven one, is genuinely different from past downturns. A memory-cost spike is, by its nature, more likely to ease as chip manufacturers ramp production or as demand from other memory-hungry sectors (like AI data centers, which have separately been consuming enormous NAND and DRAM supply) shifts — though there’s no guarantee of a specific timeline for that easing, and NAND/DRAM markets have historically been prone to multi-year supply cycles rather than quick corrections. Buyers considering whether to wait out the current price surge should weigh that genuine uncertainty against their actual need for a new device now.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are smartphone shipments falling in 2026?
IDC projects a 16.7% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026, the worst on record, driven primarily by a NAND and DRAM memory chip shortage that pushed component costs up more than 300% year-over-year and average phone prices up 27.6%.
Are all smartphone categories declining equally?
No. While the overall market is projected to contract sharply, premium categories like foldables are still expected to grow — IDC projects Apple’s foldable iPhone alone will sell over 10 million units in its debut year, and Counterpoint Research projects 48% year-over-year growth in North America’s foldable segment specifically.
Which smartphones are most affected by rising prices?
Budget and entry-level smartphones are likely most exposed, since memory chips represent a proportionally larger share of their total cost compared to premium devices, where memory cost increases are a smaller fraction of an already higher price.
When will smartphone memory prices come down?
There’s no confirmed timeline. NAND and DRAM markets have historically experienced multi-year supply cycles, and current demand from AI data centers is adding further pressure on the same memory supply chain that smartphones depend on.
Sources & Methodology
This article draws on data and reporting from: IDC’s 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast and NAND/DRAM cost analysis, as reported by Cryptopolitan; and Counterpoint Research’s April 2026 forecast on North American foldable smartphone market growth. Figures reflect the most recently published projections as of this article’s last-updated date and are subject to revision as actual 2026 shipment data is finalized.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.